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Top PostsNFL Odds Week 9: Fly like the Eagles
BRAD LECLAIR
NFLPosts.com Gambling Fool
They say that the longer married couples stay together, the more they start to look alike, Well, for these two division rivals joined at the hip, this season, it is like looking in a mirror.
Just how evenly matched are they? Consider this. They are tied with each other for top spot in the NFC East, both with records of 5-2. Both are 3-1 at home, and both are 2-1 on the road. The Cowboys are averaging 28.1 points a game, while the Eagles are averaging 29. The Cowboys are allowing 19.4 points a game, while the Eagles are allowing 19. Two peas in a pod.
Dallas @ Philadelphia; 8:20pm (NBC) Line: Eagles by 3 Over/Under: 47.5
Despite being blamed for much of the Cowboys deficiencies this year, QB Tony Romo has thrown for 12 TDs and 4 INTs, while Philly’s starting QB combo of Donovan McNabb (5 games) and Kevin Kolb (2 starts) have combined for 13 TDs and 4 INTs. Romo’s QB rating is 96.8 and McNabb and Kolb together are 96.05. Two sides of the same coin.
The Cowboys come into this weekend on a three game winning streak and have won four of their last five games. The Eagles have won two straight but also have won four of their last five.
But come Sunday, something’s gotta give. And it might be the way each team plays when it has the lead. In their five wins, the Cowboys’ average margin of victory is 14 points per win. Sounds respectable enough. But it pales in comparison to the Eagles, whose average margin of victory in their five wins is a dominating 20 points. Once they take a lead, the Eagles are like a dog with a bone (no pun intended, Michael Vick fans).
Looking at the head to head history, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five, both trends pointing toward Dallas. But the Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Philly, and the Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Advantage Philadelphia. Eagles -3
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Washington @ Atlanta; 1pm (FOX) Line: Falcons by 11.5 Over/Under: 39.5
Like a bad rash, the Redskins are back. They return to the field after last week’s bye week, hoping that people have forgotten how bad they are. We haven’t. They stink. They may be more well rested for this game, but they still stink. Their only two wins this year have come against St Louis and Tampa Bay, teams that are a combined 1-14. And the Redskins are a cure for what ails ya. Three of their five losses came against teams that were winless previous to their meeting with Washington. Well, the Falcons are better than their modest 4-3 record might indicate, and are much better than any of those teams just mentioned (Detroit, Carolina, KC). And Atlanta is looking for a pick-me-up after battling undefeated New Orleans this past Monday night. Consider the Redskins that remedy. Atlanta has the 2nd-worst pass defense, but Washington does not have the passing offense to take advantage of that, averaging just 200 yards a game. Atlanta RB is coming off his best game of the season, having gouged New Orleans for 151 yards, and could have a huge day against the Redskins’ run defense, which is 26th in the league. The Skins are 0-3 ATS on the road this season, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and are 3-12-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall, while Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite, and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a SU loss. Atlanta will get healthy against the Redskins. Falcons -11.5
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Arizona @ Chicago; 1pm (FOX) Line: Bears by 3 Over/Under: 44.5
Wow, how much do I hate this game? The similarities between these two teams are staggering, and given that home field advantage usually counts for three points in establishing the spread, it is no wonder that the oddsmakers have the Bears favored by three. These teams are virtual carbon copies of each other, making this game almost impossible to handicap. All of a sudden, Arizona can win on the road, winning all three of its road games so far this year, while Chicago is good at protecting their home turf, having won all three of its home games. The Cardinals are averaging 22.4 points a game, while the Bears are scoring just a smidgeon more at 22.7. Arizona is allowing 20.4 points a game, while Chicago is allowing just one point more, 21.4. Think that is similar? Arizona QB Kurt Warner has thrown for 11 TDs and 11 INTs, while Chicago QB Jay Cutler has thrown for, yup, you guessed it, an identical 11 TDs, and 11 INTs. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last six as an underdog, are 5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record, and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. While the Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, they are also 1-5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record, and could be in for a let-down game after last week’s easy win over Cleveland. Since this game reeks of a push, I prefer to take the points if I can. Cardinals +3
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Baltimore @ Cincinnati; 1pm (CBS) Line: Ravens by 3 Over/Under: 43.5
This is likely going to be another grudge match between these two AFC North division rivals, and it is a rematch of their meeting in Week 5, when the Bengals stole a win from Baltimore by scoring a TD to win it with just 27 seconds left in the game. The Bengals are tied with Pittsburgh atop the division, and are coming off their bye week, while the Ravens are just one game back and are happy to have ended their three-game losing streak by thumping Denver last week, giving the Broncos their first loss of the season. Baltimore is better than their record indicates, as they could easily be undefeated on the season, with their three losses — all to quality opponents (New England, Cincinnati, and Minnesota) — coming by a total of 11 points. The Ravens will likely be jacked up, playing with anger, eager to avenge the earlier loss, but Cincinnati has had the extra week to prepare. The running game figures to be a huge factor in this game as Cincinnati has the #9-ranked rushing offense, with the Ravens right behind them at #10. And the Bengals feature the 5th-best rushing defense, while Baltimore is just ahead of them, ranked #4. The difference could through the air as the Ravens complement their running game with QB Joe Flacco leading the #10 ranked passing offense, and have the #4 overall offense, scoring more than 28 points a game. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, and are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall, but they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, but are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games comng off a bye week. Head to head solves nothing as the favorite is 14-6 ATS in the last 20, favoring Baltimore, but the Ravens are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. But I will use anger and vengeance as my x-factors here and go with Baltimore to split the season series. Ravens -3
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Houston @ Indianapolis; 1pm (CBS) Line: Colts by 9.5 Over/Under: 48
This could be an interesting game. Everyone knows that Indianapolis is undefeated. And that Peyton Manning is on fire and making a case for being league MVP, having thrown 15 TDs, and for more than 2,200 yards. But quietly, Houston is just two games back, has won three in a row, and four of their last five, including impressive wins over Cincinnati and San Francisco. And QB Matt Schaub has thrown for more TDs (16) and for more yards (2,342), than Peyton, albeit having played one game more. That’s the good news for Texans fans. The bad news is that they will be missing their leader in TDs, as TE Owen Daniels is out for the season, having torn his ACL last week. And their starting RB Steve Slaton is suffering from fumble-itis, prompting them to use backup RB Ryan Moats, who did manage to hit paydirt for three TDs last week against Buffalo. As with so many division games, the numbers do not paint a definitive picture for this matchup either. While the Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog, and are 4-0-1 ATS against teams with winning record, they are also a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Colts, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, but are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games, and are a dismal 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Colts struggled a bit last week against a quality opponent, needing a trick play — a pass from RB Joseph Addai to WR Reggie Wayne – to escape San Francisco with a 4-point win (and no cover). The Texans are quality opponents and could very well keep this one within the number. Texans +9.5
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Kansas City @ Jacksonville; 1pm (CBS) Line: Jaguars by 6.5 Over/Under: 42
This game is like the deadbeat dad of this week’s schedule — you will not find much support anywhere. You have the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their bye week, sitting with exactly one victory on the season, and you have the Jaguars, whose shoddy defense allowed Tennessee to rush for 305 yards (!!!) last week, enabling the Titans to secure their first win of the season. It will be interesting to see if KC can capitalize on the Jaguars’ swiss cheese run defense, as they suspended starting RB Larry Johnson, giving highly touted RB Jamaal Charles a chance to make a name for himself. And odds are good Kansas City will have to try to outrun or outscore Jacksonville as the Chiefs are ranked in the bottom five of the league in passing yards, rushing yards, total yards, and points allowed. There is no “D” in Jacksonville either as they rank within the bottom eight of those same categories. In Jacksonville’s last three games, they managed losses to Seattle and Tennessee, whose combined record is 3-11, and narrowly escaped with an overtime win over the woeful Rams, who at the time were 0-5. Hardly a reason to lay any points with the Jaguars. On top of that, Jacksonville is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, and are a perfectly garbage 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. Chiefs +6.5
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Green Bay @ Tampa Bay; 1pm (FOX) Line: Packers by 10 Over/Under: 43.5
I feel sorry for the Buccaneers. Green Bay is likely still reeling from last week’s painful loss to Old Man Favre and the Vikings, and will likely be looking to put the hurt on someone. Enter the poor Buccaneers. The poor, pitiful winless Buccaneers. They should be well rested coming off their bye week, but they are not winless because of fatigue. They are winless because they just flat out stink. While GB QB Aaron Rodgers was under the microscope last week in his matchup with Favre, he should have an easy week against the Bucs, as Tampa Bay is allowing a staggering 162 yards a game on the ground. The Packers are averaging just under 27 points a game, while the Bucs are scoring less than 14 points a game, a 13-point differential. Combine that with the fact that the Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite, and are a solid 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games and you have the proof for a blowout. To pound the point home, the Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog, and are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall. Packers -10
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Miami @ New England; 1pm (CBS) Line: Patriots by 10.5 Over/Under: 47
Two teams with two very different make-ups in this divisional matchup. New England should be well rested coming off their bye week, while the Dolphins might be struggling to catch their breath out of their blowhole as they are coming off an always exhausting division rivalry win last week against the Jets and an exasperating loss to New Orleans two weeks ago. But the Dolphins also have some motivation spurring them on as well, as their three wins on the season have come in their last four games, and they are 3-0 within their division having beat Buffalo, and having swept the season series from the Jets. Miami’s two-headed RB monster of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have staked the Dolphins to the #4-ranked rushing attack, and if they have continued success against New England, and can keep QB Tom Brady and his high-octane offense off the field, they just might be able to keep this game close. And the numbers support this, too. The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more, are 5-0 ATS in their last five games within their division, and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record, and are 4-1 ATS both in their last five games as a favorite and overall. But, they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games when favored by 10.5 or more. If the Dolphins can control the clock with their running game, I am happy to swim with the Dolphins. Dolphins +10.5
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Carolina @ New Orleans; 4:05pm (FOX) Line: Saints by 14 Over/Under: 51
The New Orleans Saints have scored 86 points off of turnovers this season and have scored six defensive TDs, one more TD than the Cleveland Browns’ offense has scored. They lead the NFL in interceptions with 15, including a league-best five of those being returned for TDs. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has the dubious distinction of leading the league in interceptions, having thrown 13 passes to the other team, while tossing for only 5 TDs to his own teammates. The question for me is not whether or not the Saints are going to cover the 14-point spread, but rather whether or not the Saints’ defense is going to cover the 14-point spread. I said last week that I was going to pick the Saints to cover until they failed to cover for the first time. Well, they failed to cover last week, as Atlanta snuck in the back door with time winding down, but I figure that was kind of a fluke. And much to the chagrin of Panthers’ fans, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is no Jake Delhomme. I am calling a mulligan on last week’s back door cover. The numbers do not support my mindset, however, as the road team is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two, and Carolina is 8-0 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans. But these are not your grandfather’s Saints. Or your dad’s or even your older brother’s. These Saints are a new, dynamic, ball-hawking breed. Defense wins championships, but opportunistic defenses win covers. Big covers. Throw in an overly hospitable opposing QB that seems to complete as many passes to the other team as he does to his own, and I will take my chances. Saints -14
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Detroit @ Seattle; 4:05pm (FOX) Line: Seahawks by 10 Over/Under: 43.5
Okay, I have a confession to make. I am a Detroit Lions fan. I am not proud of it. Especially after last week, as my stink-ass Lions allowed the crap-ass Rams to win their first game in 18 tries. We could have been off the hook. Or at least had some company in our recent futility. But no, that would have been too close to being something positive. Something to hang our hat on. A very small hat, but a hat nonetheless. We like it down here in the cellar. We are comfortable here. We are used to the squalor, used to the stink. But it is getting a little bit crowded down here with the likes of St Louis, Cleveland, Oakland, Kansas City, Washington and Tampa Bay, all bunking with us this season. Yes, I am a Detroit Lions fan. But I am not dumb. At least not dumb enough to be have blind loyalty. I can’t afford to be. I literally cannot afford to be. It hurts to have to pick against my team so often, but really, what choice do they give me? But truth be told, as bad as they are, and have been over the last few years, they are not horrible against the spread. At least when they are a dog with a big number…which is the case quite a bit when you are as bad as they are. But when a favorite like they were last week? Yikes. C’mon. There is a reason that the Lions have not been a favorite since Week 1 of last season. And that was only because Atlanta was coming off a dreadful season the year before. But things are right again this week. The Lions are an underdog again. And a pretty big dog, against a not-too-impressive Seattle team. So by that logic, I should be able to take my Lions, right? They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. Oh, wait. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. And Seattle is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record, and are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. Ouch. This is gonna hurt again. Seahawks -10
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San Diego @ NY Giants; 4:15pm (CBS) Line: Giants by 4.5 Over/Under: 47
NYG QB Eli Manning ought to put the entire New York Yankees roster on his Christmas card list. If it not for the Yankees taking the city by storm, having captured their 27th World Series Wednesday night, more negative attention might be heaped on him and his Giants teammates right now. After looking like the cream of the crop, and starting the season 5-0, the G-Men have gone sour, losing their last three, including last week’s smackdown at the hands of the hated Eagles. The Chargers, on the other hand, seem to be getting back on track, having won their last two in a row. When it comes to points for, and points against, these two teams could not be more similar. New York is averaging 26.5 points a game, while the Chargers are averaging 26.4. The Giants are allowing 22.9 points a game, while San Diego is allowing 22.7. That is spooky. And of little help in distinguishing who to choose. Looking at the numbers, the Chargers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog getting between 3.5 and 10 points, and are 14-6-3 ATS in their last 23 games as a road underdog, but are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. New York is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 as a favorite, but are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record, and are 0-3-1 ATS following a SU loss. In a game with stats so closely contested, I would rather take than give. Chargers +4.5
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Tennessee @ San Francisco; 4:15pm (CBS) Line: 49ers by 4 Over/Under: 40.5
The Vince Young experiment has started again in Tennessee. And while his numbers last week were fairly pedestrian, the bottom line in the NFL, as it is in any sport really, is all about wins, especially when you have none nearing the halfway point of the season. And since VY got the win last week, he gets the start again. But he will not have the luxury of facing a run defense that you can drive a Mack truck through as the Titans did last week against Jacksonville. Despite the fact that Tennessee has the #2-ranked rushing attack in the league, the 49ers run defense is ranked #2 in the league, so Young might have to try to exploit San Francisco’s 29th-ranked pass defense. On the other side of the ball, San Francisco will look to pick apart the Titans’ defense which is ranked dead last in the league in passing defense and total points, as they look to end their 3-game losing streak. They are a better team than their record indicates as they suffered two tough losses against two quality opponents the last two weeks in Houston and Indianapolis. San Francisco is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite, and are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight overall. While the Titans are a solid 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The numbers are similar for both, so the deciding factor for me is strength of schedule last week — the 49ers almost pulled off the upset win on the road over the undefeated Colts, while Tennessee managed to win at home against a very suspect Jacksonville team. 49ers -4
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Pittsburgh @ Denver; Monday, 8:30pm (ESPN) Line: Steelers by 3 Over/Under: 39.5
Another week, another week of disrespect for the Broncos. It is interesting to note that despite their stellar 6-1 record, Denver has been favored just once this season — back in Week 2, when they were favored by 3 over the dysfunctional Browns. At least they can take solace in the fact that this week, they are underdogs to not only the defending Super Bowl champions, but also to a team that is red-hot, having won its last four games by an average of 13.5 points, including a 10-point win over Minnesota who had been undefeated previous to that matchup. And one week after New Orleans and Atlanta lit up the Monday Night Football scoreboard for 62 points, we have what should be a knock-down drag-out battle between two of the best defenses on the league. Pittsburgh has the top-ranked defense against the run, allowing just 76 yards and 18 points a game, while Denver is #1 in pass defense and second in points allowed, giving up an average of just less than 14 points. While there are more numbers that point towards Denver, I am not still completely sold on the Broncos. Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records. But they are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these two teams. And in my skepticism of the Broncos, I am leaning towards the team that has been there, done that. Steelers -3
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Last week’s record: 8-5 (that’s better)
