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Opinion, Top PostsTMCB: Numbers back Belichick even if former players do not
EDDIE LEE
NFLPosts.com Editor
There are no shortage of polls in the virtual world and not surprisingly many of them dipped their toes into Bill Belichick’s ill-fated 4th-down decision.
A poll on a poker players’ site found that 63 per cent backed the Patriot coach’s decision to go for it on his team’s 28-yard line with his team up 34-28 and 2 minutes in the game.
A poll on an actuaries’ chat room found equal support and rebuke for the decision that led to the Patriots’ 35-34 loss in Indianapolis while a poll at a fantasy football site had 66.7 per cent of respondents saying Belichick was dead wrong.
Obviously, everyone has a different capacity for football risk and Belichick is known his propensity to eschew traditional thinking and not always punt on fourth down.
Regardless of where the ball lies on the field, the 4th-down percentages are usually in his favor, as they were on Sunday night.
According to Advanced NFL Stats analysis, Belichick had a 0.79 probability to win the game by going for it and a 0.70 chance had he opted to punt.
Those numbers are based on historical stats that say teams convert 4th-down-and-2s 60 per cent of the time and that teams with 2 minutes left and some 65 yards to go score a TD on 30 per cent of their chances.
If Kevin Faulk makes the first down, Belichick adds another notch to his crown as The Smartest Football Coach That Ever Lived. But he didn’t and that’s the thing about percentages, they’re just that.
What happens on the field and what the numbers say should happen don’t always correlate. There’s a reason why most coaches punt the ball on fourth down.
That 40 per cent chance of not converting on 4th-and-2 can be fatal and in the risk-averse nature of NFL game management, it’s just not the right call. Not even close.
Belichick has rolled the dice on 4th down so many times, the snake eyes were long overdue. Unfortunately for him, they showed up against his personal nemesis, Peyton Manning, in the biggest game of the season and on the grandest stage.
If a botched call costs the Patriots the game against the Titans on a mid-September afternoon, does it have the same resonance?
On Monday, there closest he came to regret was when he generalized about the second-guessing that happens after any close loss.
“It’s disappointing to come up short in a game like that. There are a lot of plays in that game that you think about,” he said.
“Obviously from a coach’s standpoint there’s always lot of things that could have been done better by me and the players and everybody. You always feel that way after a tough loss. we all have to do a better job, starting with me and find a way to win those games.”
When asked if he would make the same call again, Belichick sidestepped.
“You only get once chance,” he said.
Remember when Manning couldn’t beat the Patriots? When Belichick had Peyton’s number. He was the defensive wizard who could outwit Manning the Great. One year he’d move safeties to corner, another he’d drop defensive tackles into coverage. The wrinkles were endless.
But Manning is now 6-8 against Belichick’s Patriots and more impressively, 5-1 in his last 6.
Belichick even admitted that his thought process included that fear factor, especially after the Colts had already taken just 4 minutes to score 14 points in that fateful fourth quarter.
“We know how explosive they are anytime they have the ball. They are capable of scoring. They are capable of scoring touchdowns. They are capable of scoring in a hurry. They are capable of scoring on one play.
“That’s playing the Colts.”
Even with Tom Brady at his helm, Belichick may have been too infatuated with the enemy to properly assess his team’s defensive strengths.
“The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks. Bill Belichick sent a message to his defense. He felt that his chances were better to go for it on his own 28-yard line than to punt it away and make Peyton Manning have to drive the majority of the field to win the game,” said the former soul of that defense, Tedy Bruschi.
Bruschi’s former teammate, Rodney Harrison, called it the worst coaching decision of Belichick’s career.
Indeed, for a man blessed with 3 rings, there is now Spygate and Fourth and Two.
THE SWEET SIX
| TEAM | REC. | LW | |
| Indianapolis | 9-0 | 2 | Was there any doubt when the Colts got the ball at the 29-yard line? |
| New Orleans | 9-0 | 1 | Uneven efforts against weak opposition a troubling sign |
| Minnesota | 8-1 | 3 | Favre, Peterson fine after post-bye scrimmage against Lions |
| Cincinnati | 7-2 | 5 | Ugly win in Pittsburgh leaves Bengals sitting pretty |
| New England | 6-3 | 4 | The Jets can expect an extra surly Patriots squad on Sunday |
| Arizona | 6-3 | NR | When Kurt Warner is on, he’s as unstoppable as Manning |
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