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Super Bowl XLIV betting preview: Odds say Colts will win

BRAD LECLAIR
NFLPosts.com Gambling Fool

And it all comes down to this. The hype has all but played out and Super Bowl XLIV is locked and loaded and ready to roll. It’s go time!

After a season chock full of dynamic performances, of blowouts and nail-biters, of streaks and upsets, it all comes down to this: two teams left to battle it out for all the glory. And fittingly, we are left with the best two teams in the league this year. The two teams that pursued perfection and nearly got it, with the Saints going 13-0 before their first loss, and the Colts going one better, 14-0, before being handed their first defeat. (Or maybe more accurately, before handing over their first loss to the Jets in Week 15. The dubious nature of that loss to New York, with the Colts resting their starters, has been well-documented).

Indianapolis vs New Orleans in Miami; Sunday, 6:25pm (CBS) Line: Colts by 5.5 Over/Under: 56.5

This matchup marks the first time in 16 years – since Super Bowl XXVIII – that the best team in each conference squared off for the title (the last was Dallas over Buffalo 30-13 in the 1993-94 season). The two best teams in the league left still standing, ready to do battle for the season’s ultimate supremacy. This is what we’ve been waiting for.

And you can choose your storyline: Archie’s boy versus Archie’s town; everybody’s All-American (QB Peyton Manning) versus America’s team (with apologies to Cowboy nation, the Saints have taken over as the country’s adopted team); the best quarterback matchup in the Super Bowl since Favre and Elway butted heads in Super Bowl XXXII in 1998. (Elway won that battle as his Broncos beat the Packers 31-24.) There is no shortage of angles in this game. Just choose your storyline, and hope the game justifies the hype. But I do have my worries.

Indianapolis has been a machine this season, methodically working its way through the schedule, vanquishing opponent after opponent, never really crushing anyone, just crushing  spirits week after week. New Orleans has been the sexy pick all year, lighting up the scoreboard with its dynamic offense, while the defense, as opportunistic as it’s been, has largely gone unnoticed. And let’s face it. While the Colts are no evil empire, it is hard to root against the Saints, a team that plays in a city that just four-and-a-half years ago was decimated by Hurricane Katrina. Unless you are from Indianapolis or Tennessee – where Manning went to college – if you are not rooting for New Orleans on some level, you are kind of an asshole.

Bet on the Super Bowl! – Colts vs. Saints!

With images of the damage and despair caused by Katrina still lingering in our minds, it is nice to think of how much the Saints have meant to their city. With the last of the black-and-gold confetti still fluttering to the ground in the Superdome, it is nice to think of how the team has helped the city overcome. That same football field was a hostel for those left homeless by the hurricane. The city put its faith in Drew Brees and his teammates to lift their spirits and morale from the rubble and the devastation. Does this football season make up for all the misery that they have suffered? Hell, no. Does it do anything to help repair their spirit? You bet your ass it does. Just ask anyone who has been to a game in New Orleans this season, or to any Saints game over the last four years. They are widely regarded as the loudest and most loyal fans in the league, and if the team can somehow bottle up that exuberance and bring it to Miami, that might be an X-factor.

If not, they still have plenty of weapons to call upon. QB Brees has had a magnificent year, and if not for Manning’s brilliance, Brees could easily have hoisted the NFL MVP award. Brees used his full arsenal of pass-catchers: 10 different players were on the receiving end of touchdown passes, with WRs Marques Colston and Robert Meachem leading the way with nine each. The Saints also have a formidable three-pronged rushing attack to compliment their passing game. The triple threat of RBs Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush, each of whom had five or more rushing touchdowns during the regular season, is a force. And the Saints have the added bonus of having Bush well-rested after missing time due to injury this year. With fresh legs, he seems to be hitting his stride.

New Orleans’ plan to get him ready for the playoffs has proved flawless as he has a triple crown this postseason, scoring one touchdown in each format — rushing, receiving and punt returning in two playoff games. And with great offense comes great anonymity for the defense, but while they fly under the radar, the defensive players are a definite force. They forced 39 turnovers during the regular season and have added another seven in their two games in the playoffs.

But while the Saints’ defense bullied its way to those seven turnovers, including three interceptions of QBs Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, they will be much more hard-pressed to do so against the Colts. Manning threw just 17 picks in 654 passing attempts in his 18 games this year, including just one in 83 attempts in the Colts’ two playoff games. While his performance against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago was the definite key to their win, I don’t think it has gotten enough love. (It did make No. 4 on nflposts.com’s countdown of Manning’s five best games). In that game, the Colts seemed a little out of sync and while they were moving the ball, they failed to gain key first downs, and had to settle for two field goals for most of the first half, falling behind by 11 points in the process.

But then with the second quarter winding down, Manning led the Colts 80 yards in four plays, hooking up with rookie WR Austin Collie three times, and the two capped off the drive with a16-yard touchdown pass with 1:13 left in the half, cutting the deficit to just four. By then, it looked like Dr. Manning had found his rhythm, as he began to dissect the Jets’ No. 1-ranked defense. The next time Manning touched the ball, he led the Colts 57 yards in eight plays, ending the drive with a touchdown to another young receiver, WR Pierre Garcon, to give the Colts a lead that they would never surrender. He capped off his day with a third touchdown – this one to TE Dallas Clark – in the fourth quarter that iced the game, and it marked the first and only time this season that anyone had thrown for three touchdowns against the Jets.

Manning’s ability to read defenses and adapt on the fly is legendary, but rarely has it been more evident than in that game. At times, he used a seven-step drop to avoid pressure, and in that unconventional style, he managed to go 8-for-10, averaging 16 yards per attempt. In addition to his three TD passes, Manning finished with 377 yards (on 26-for-39 passing), giving him the NFL postseason record for 300-yard games with seven. (He had previously been tied with Warner and Joe Montana.) He galvanized his reputation as the master of adjustment with this incredible performance and will be tough to beat, and even tougher to bet against, this Sunday.

Both Indianapolis and New Orleans played at Sun Life Stadium this season, with both teams beating the Dolphins in dramatic fashion. Manning threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns, the last with 3:18 left to play for a 27-23 win, while New Orleans rallied with 23 points in the fourth quarter to win 46-34, as Brees threw for 298 yards and one touchdown, and rushed for two more scores.

While the Colts have some extra success on this field, having won the Super Bowl there just three years ago, both teams have a flair for the dramatic and an ability to score in Miami, and this game should be no different. Indianapolis was second in the league this season in passing yards, while the Saints were fourth. New Orleans led the league in scoring, averaging 31.9 points a game, while the Colts were seventh, managing 26 points a week. And while the Saints appear to have the edge at running back with their three-headed monster of Thomas, Bell and Bush, Indianapolis uses a short passing game to great effect to help offset a lacklustre rushing attack.

In addition to that fact, it should be noted that despite an inbalance of play-calling later in the game, the Colts did manage to gain 101 yards on the ground against the Jets in the AFC title game, including 80 yards from RB Joseph Addai on just 16 carries (an average of 5 yards per carry).

Before we look at the numbers, let’s first take a quick peek at some intangibles in this Super Bowl matchup of Peyton versus Payton (QB Manning versus NO head coach Sean). New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams made headlines leading up to this game when he said that his defense would have to put some “remember me” hits on Manning. Reflecting the quiet demeanor of their low-key head coach, Jim Caldwell, the Colts refused to engage in any rebuttal through the media, but they might look to defend their quarterback on the field.

With Sunday’s trip to the title game, Caldwell becomes the fifth rookie head coach to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and will try to become the third coach to win it. (George Seifert of the 49ers in 1980 and Don McCafferty of the Baltimore Colts in 1970 did so previously). Underneath the surface, there could be a ton of divided loyalties in this game. Everyone knows that N’awlins is where the Manning boys grew up, and their father, Archie, was the quarterback of the Saints back in the 1970’s, but Indy’s top receiver, Reggie Wayne, also grew up in New Orleans, and running back Addai was still playing for Louisiana State University when Katrina tore through the city in 2005. Conversely, Brees, the pride of the Saints, remains a legend in the state of Indiana, as he made a name for himself at Purdue, just 65 miles from Indianapolis. So while first allegiances will still likely be honored, many will have reason to cheer on both sides of the ball, and will be happy no matter who wins.

But while those facts are cute, football ain’t about being cute, and none of that is anything to hang your hat, or more importantly, your wagers, on. That’s what numbers are for, so let’s take a look at some.

As mentioned earlier in this article, this is the first time in 16 years that the Super Bowl has featured the two best teams in football. Logically, that would seem like a good thing, an indication that the big game would be big fun, going down to the wire, right? Not so much.

In the history of the Super Bowl, only eight times the top seeds from both conferences have met, and of those eight games, seven of them have been decided by at least 13 points. In those eight Super Bowls, the average margin of victory has been more than 18 points. Let’s hope that that history does not repeat itself. Also in those eight games, the No. 1 overall team has had great success, as they are 5-1 both straight up and against the point spread. (The other two times, both teams were tied for the best record in the league.)

These stats bode well for the Colts, but let’s look at some more recent numbers. On paper, New Orleans seems to have more depth and more weapons, and the numbers bear that out as the Saints led the league in offense, averaging 404.4 yards and 31.9 points a game. But the Colts have proven time and time again they can shoot it out with anyone, with the second-best passing attack –282 yards a game. But the Colts are a more complete team and can beat you in more and different ways than New Orleans, as evidenced by their seven come-from-behind wins in the regular season, and by having rallied from 11 points down to the Jets to take the AFC title.

Despite Brees’s greatness, the best chance the Saints have to win is on the strength of their running game. They averaged 132.6 yards a game (sixth best) compared to Indianapolis’s 80.9 yards a game on the ground (worst in the league). Outside of that stat, the numbers are not great for the Saints. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall as they head into this, their first appearance in the Super Bowl.

The Colts, however, have been to this rodeo before, just three years ago, in fact. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff games, and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven playoff games as the favorite. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as the favorite giving between 3.5 and 10 points, and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records. They are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as the favorite, and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall, while the favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the two. All these numbers point toward the Colts covering the spread.

But, by my own logic that I laid out earlier in this piece, unless you are from Indianapolis or Tennessee, unless you are unabashed Colts or Volunteers fan, you would be kind of an asshole if you rooted against the Saints. And despite being called that – and much worse – more times than I count throughout my lifetime, I do not aspire to be one.

Given that there are so many others with divided loyalties going into Super Bowl XLIV, and given that this is the last game of the year, I am cutting myself some slack, and allowing myself to play both sides of the fence here. I am hoping for a great game, with great memories to reflect on and keep me warm at night over the long offseason, a game maybe decided by the team that has the ball last. I am rooting for the Hollywood ending, the team of destiny, and the feel-good story of the year. I am siding with my heart and my compassion and cheering for New Orleans – both the team and the city. But my head, and my wallet, is falling in favor of Indianapolis. Is that fair?

The Super Bowl Pick: Colts -5.5

I hope you all have enjoyed the previews this season, and we thank you for visiting. And while there will be no more games to handicap for another seven months, stay tuned to nflposts.com as we endeavor to cover all that is good and worthy from the National Football League. Wishing you all a great Super Bowl Sunday, both on and off the field.

Conference Championships: 2-0

Divisional Round: 1-3

Wild Card Weekend: 1-3

Regular season: 128-125-3

SUPER BOWL ODDS and GAME INFO

Who: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date: Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET; TV: CBS
Point spread: 5.5; over/under: 56
National anthem performer: Carrie Underwood
Halftime act: The Who
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

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Bet on the Super Bowl – Colts vs. Saints!