Tuesday
NFL News, Opinion, Top PostsRecipe for a Saints’ Super Bowl upset of Colts
ADRIAN BRIJBASSI
NFLPosts.com Editor
Maybe that crazy voodoo from the bayou is working. First, the news of Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury came Sunday night, creating uncertainty about the Colts’ pass rush, then on Monday weather became an issue. On South Beach, that’s only supposed to happen when you have to decide what level of sunblock to apply.
But heavy rain fell and forced the Saints indoors for their first practice of the week leading to Super Bowl XLIV. Any other team might think it a bad omen, but Drew Brees quickly latched onto the significance of a team from New Orleans being disrupted by Mother Nature.
“Weather the storm; we know how to do that,” Brees said, using the rain to remind his teammates why a win would be transcendent for their city.
The Super Bowl forecast calls for 77 degrees with 20 percent chance of showers, but rain is expected through this week and the potential for a soggy field at Sun Life Stadium would figure to help the Saints. Of the two Super Bowl finalists, New Orleans is by far the better running team, and any slipperiness on the surface might hurt the footing of Colts defenders attempting to tackle Pierre Thomas or Reggie Bush.
Throw in the fact that everyone from the president on down has turned the United States into one giant melting pot of gumbo (save for Indiana, of course) and Who Dat Nation has grown many million-fold in a week. America wants New Orleans to win because if that happens then the nation might take on the underdog resolve necessary to get out of the economic mess it’s in. Well, that’s a good way to spin it anyway.
But for the upset to work, it’s going to take some more fortune and intangibles to work in New Orleans favor. When the Giants beat the Patriots two years ago, New York benefited from playing on a grass field at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The Patriots had played all but one game (at Miami on October 21, 2007) on artificial surfaces. Did that matter for a team that was 18-0? After a historic loss, it’s safe to conclude that it did.
The Colts and Saints are both dome teams, so that may not matter, except that the Colts have played only two games on turf since blowing out the Titans 31-9 in Nashville on October 11. Those two games, at Baltimore and Jacksonville, were won by a total of six points. The Saints were 3-1 on grass with the one loss coming in the regular-season finale at Carolina.
The biggest factor, though, will be Freeney’s status. It’s not quite an equalizer, but if the defensive end can’t go or is limited, the Saints can go to four-receiver sets more often and Brees can put more pressure on the Colts’ secondary. New Orleans can control the ball a little bit longer, perhaps, and if it’s a close game that could be a difference.
If whatever pins are being poked into those No. 18 voodoo dolls right now work, Peyton Manning and the Colts could find themselves in a fight to the finish.
SAINTS DEFENSE READY FOR A CHESS MATCH
We know how physically gifted Darren Sharper is. On Super Bowl Sunday, though, the Saints’ safety will need to show off his wits against Manning. Sharper’s reputation as a gambler is well known but many gamblers are stupid, he takes calculated risks.
The Saints have done some interesting things on defense during the past two games and they’ve managed to confuse two smart, veteran quarterbacks in Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. That’s a warning sign for the Colts and their backers who think the Super Bowl odds of 5.5 are a bargain. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams started to get away from his 3-4 defense against the Vikings. It’s a big reason the front line got to Favre as often as it did. The Vikings were expecting one thing based on the personnel on the field and Williams sprung something they hadn’t seen on film.
Of course, Manning is studying hard and searching for the key to dismantling Williams’ scheme. Against the Jets, he found success after conceding that cornerback Darrelle Revis would take away Reggie Wayne and much of the left side of the field. But Sharper is a safety and the deep middle routes aren’t going to be as open as they were for Manning and slot receiver Austin Collie against New York.
An early interception, with one of those big returns Sharper is known for, would swing the momentum and maybe the outcome toward the Saints.
“Everyone is talking about the offense in this game,” Sharper said, “but I promise our defense will have something to say.”
MANNING THE MAN
How polished is Peyton Manning? He’s got a perfect touch off the field as much as on it. Here’s his answer about who his dad, Archie, would be backing on Sunday: “Surely the New Orleans Saints are special to my dad. He has been a part of that organization as a player, as a radio commentator and as an ex-player for 39 years now, so he knows how special that is. He is extremely proud of Drew and the New Orleans Saints. But I think he is pulling for his son this week.”
SUPER BOWL PREDICTION
I’m sticking with my prediction from last week (and last month) of the Colts topping the Saints, although it might be as close as a field-goal game if Freeney is out and the New Orleans defense can be effective early against Manning.
FOUR AND OUT
Proof of disorder in the universe: “The Michael Vick Project”, a 10-part documentary series marketed by BET to show how an NFL quarterback gone bad can turn good after doing time and then updating his wardrobe, is co-produced by Vick himself.
You know you’re an evil Republican if…: You deride your Hawaiian-raised president for being out of touch with the concerns of most Americans in part because he’s from the Aloha state and then you hold a party summit on Waikiki Beach, as the GOP did last week.
iPhone app you’ll never live without: Shakespeare (free). Get all 40 plays – including “Henry IV” about a monumental battle that resulted in a historic upset; apropos reading for a Saints fan this week.
Coolest song of the week: Planet of New Orleans by Dire Straits (last week: Sunday Bloody Sunday by U2)
RELATED SUPER BOWL PICKS, PREDICTIONS AND NEWS
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Five Super Bowl matchups to watch
Super Bowl XLIV Preview – Manning, Colts to march over Saints
How the Super Bowl contenders, the Saints and the Colts were built
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Bet on the Super Bowl – Colts vs. Saints!
