Friday

Packers continue to be hottest team in NFC

BRAD LECLAIR
NFLPosts.com Gambling Fool

The New Orleans Saints’ quest for perfection grabbed the headlines. Brett Favre in Vikings’ purple and gold dominated the airwaves. The Dallas Cowboys made news for getting the December monkeys off their backs. But as the clock ticked down on the NFL regular season, it was the Green Bay Packers that flew under the radar, and by finishing 7-1, they captured the NFC’s best record through the second half of the season.

Green Bay @ Arizona; Sunday, 4:30pm (FOX) Line: Cardinals by 2.5 Over/Under: 47.5

Maybe the embarrassing loss that they suffered at the hands of the then-winless Tampa Buccaneers was the motivation that they needed, because since that Week 9 loss, the Packers have been the hottest team in their conference, losing just once, with that one loss being a last-second, one-point, heart-breaker to the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers. In their seven wins since the mid-way point of the season, Green Bay outscored their opponents 210-88, winning by an average of 17.4 points a game over that stretch. While that domination includes last week’s 33-7 drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals, there were mitigating factors that render that outcome meaningless when previewing this week’s playoff rematch.

Bet on NFL Wild-Card Action – Packers at Cardinals!

By the time that game kicked off, Arizona knew they were locked into their playoff spot and had no chance of moving up to secure the #2-seed. As a result, head coach Ken Whisenhunt decided to employ a cautious approach to the game, playing QB Kurt Warner for just two series before replacing him with Matt Leinart, and by using a defensive game plan that Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers described as a “vanilla” defense. The Cardinals made no effort to win that game, while Green Bay went into it full throttle, using the game to stay “razor sharp” and to “stay on course”, as head coach Mike McCarthy put it. But while you cannot put much stock into last week’s game alone, you can give a lot of credence to what the Packers have achieved over the course of the whole season.

Green Bay had the best record in the league ATS this season, going 11-4-1. (Only one other playoff team is in the top five — Indianapolis, who went 10-5-1 ATS, despite their 14-2 record SU). Green Bay are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass, and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in the previous game, and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against the NFC. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning record, and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog getting three points or less. Noticing a pattern here? All these numbers reflect how hot they have been in the second half of the year. Longer term, the numbers bear out favorably, too. They are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games, and are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. It’s true that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five wild-card games, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games, but those two poor numbers are dwarfed by all the other favorable trends on their side.

While Favre and the Vikings got the better of Rodgers and the Packers in their two matchups this year, Rodgers has done an admirable job to make Packers fans forget about their former green and gold-en boy, bettering Favre in passing yards (4,434 to 4,202) and throwing just three fewer TDs passes (30 to Favre’s 33), with the same amount of interceptions (7). In their eight games after that Week 9 loss to the Bucs, Rodgers threw just two picks, both of them in a Week 13 win over the Ravens, while four of Favre’s seven picks came in the last three of Minnesota’s last five games, during which they went 3-2. That golden arm of Rodgers ought to give the Packers an upper hand towards an upset of the favored Cardinals in this game.

This is not to say that the Cardinals have no chance, or do not have good numbers supporting them, too, however. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games, and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in January. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite giving three points or less, and are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records. But they flew under the radar through the playoffs last year, and with their near-victory in last year’s Super Bowl, they will have no such benefit of anonymity. The Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, and head to head against Green Bay, the Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Both teams have Super Bowl odds of 20/1.

Green Bay has beaten Arizona in eight of last 10 games straight up, and I see that trend improving to nine of the last 11 after this game. I like Green Bay to continue to be the hottest team in the NFC.

Pick: Packers +2.5

More Wild-Card Weekend NFL Playoff Previews
Eagles eager to soar over Cowboys
Ravens set to fly against Patriots
Jets’ luck to end vs. Bengals
Super Bowl XLIV odds