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NFL News, Opinion, Top PostsNFL Odds Week 16: Steelers aim to play Grinch
BRAD LECLAIR
NFLPosts.com Gambling Fool
There are so many games with playoff implications this weekend – that tends to be the case when you have six teams tied at 7-7, and eight teams vying for two playoff spots — but none of them have the sexy grittiness, or is that the gritty sexiness, of a heated division rivalry like Baltimore versus Pittsburgh.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh; 1pm (CBS) Betting line: Steelers by 1 Over/Under: 41 – BET NOW!
It was not long ago, just a mere two weeks in fact, that the Pittsburgh Steelers had been pretty much written off for dead. They were reeling, having lost five in a row, including games to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland, three of the worst teams in football. Thankfully for them, they had started strong, 6-2, so while they looked dead in the water on the field, their last-second win last week over the Packers evened their record at 7-7, and reinserted them into the playoff race.
Baltimore has a similar story of streakiness. They started the season with three wins, then followed that with three losses. Their inconsistency lingered, alternating wins and losses for the next six weeks, before getting back on track with blowout wins over Detroit and Chicago. Admittedly, those last two wins came against pretty crappy teams, but the fact that they won them by an average of 34.5 points a game still earns the Ravens some credit. And they also enabled the Ravens to position themselves in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth.
So the stage is set. Enter the Steelers. Pittsburgh is looking to play the Grinch to Baltimore’s Cindy-Lou Who and are trying the last can of Who-Hash by knocking the Ravens out of their current playoff position. In their previous matchup in Baltimore in Week 12, the Ravens beat the Steelers by three, giving Pittsburgh their third loss in a row, and their second of three games in a row in which they lost by a field goal.
It is the rare occasion when division rivals as fierce as these two do anything other than split the season series, but don’t tell that to the Cincinnati Bengals, who went 6-0 in the AFC North this year. I am really kinda torn on this game. At the beginning of the year, Baltimore was my dark horse pick to come out of the AFC, and while I know that would be a tall order given the competition of Indianapolis and San Diego, making the playoffs would be a necessary first step. History has taught us to not count out the Steelers and their win over a solid Green Bay team could be the spark that lights a fire under their asses instead of having their heads lodged up there. Both teams have compelling numbers to pick them and to pick against them. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog getting between half-a-point and three, and are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games overall. But they are also just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against their AFC North rivals, and 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record, and it is hard to pick against the defending Super Bowl champions, especially at home, and especially giving just a single point. But the numbers do support doing so. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, are 0-5 ATS in their last five as the favorite, and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They are also just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games at home, giving between half-a-point and three, and head to head, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Very nervously, I am going to go against the defending champs at home, and go with Baltimore to take a step closer to vindicating my beginning-of-the-season-confidence that I had in them. Ravens +1
San Diego @ Tennessee; Friday, 7:30pm (NFL Network) Line: Titans by 3 Over/Under: 47
With all due respect to New Orleans and Indianapolis and their respective pursuits of perfection, for me, the Tennessee Titans could be the story of the year. The fact that they started the year 0-6, and now, in the second-last week of the season, still find themselves battling for a playoff spot is astounding. Unfortunately for the Titans, they now come against the San Diego Chargers, who outside of the Colts still being undefeated, are the hottest team in the league. I find this line a little peculiar as the Chargers have made no mention of resting players, as they have not quite clinched the second seed in the AFC yet. So to think that you can take the second-best team in the AFC, and the second-hottest team in the NFL, AND still get three points seems like a no-brainer to me.
And I have not even mentioned how dominant San Diego has been in the month of December over the last few years. QB Philip Rivers has never lost a game in his career in December, and the Chargers have won 17 games in a row in the month of Christmas, including going 9-3 ATS in their last 12. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, and are 16-6-3 ATS in their last 25 games as a road underdog. While the Titans have won seven of their last eight games SU, and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as home favorite of three points or less, more recently they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as favorite giving those same points. They are a poor 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against AFC teams, and are a miserable 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records. Head to head, San Diego is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, so for the second time in three weeks, I am liking San Diego as my lock of the week. Chargers +3
Buffalo @ Atlanta; 1pm (CBS) Line: Falcons by 9 Over/Under:41.5
It doesn’t pay to be a quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. Well, technically it does pay, but it definitely does not come with any job security…at least not provided by their offensive line. When last week’s starter, Ryan Fitzpatrick, got knocked around, head coach Perry Fewell reinserted former starter Trent Edwards, who in relatively short order got knocked around, and knocked out of the game, and is now done for the year with an ankle injury. But while Fitzpatrick is still questionable for this weekend, does it really matter, seeing as how the two Buffalo QBs have combined to throw just 12 touchdowns this season? Well, it matters to Brian Brohm, a second-round pick in the ‘08 draft, as he could make his NFL debut this Sunday against the Falcons. While the thought of taking the Bills with a rookie QB at the helm is a little scary, Buffalo has done a decent job of keeping games close lately. Six of their last 10 games have been decided by six points or less, well within the nine points that Atlanta is favored by this week. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog on the road getting between 3.5 and 10 points, and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall. But the Falcons have good numbers worth considering too. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as favorite giving 10 points or less, are 4-1 ATS in their last five as the home favorite, and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. While I am not feeling too confident about it, I will lean towards Buffalo to keep it close, rather than take the Falcons giving nine points, which is just one point less than their total points scored last week. Bills +9
Kansas City @ Cincinnati; 1pm (CBS) Line: Bengals by 14 Over/Under: 40
The Cincinnati Bengals deserve a matchup like this. Their schedule was cruel to them, making it necessary for them to travel to the West Coast to battle the red-hot San Diego Chargers last Sunday, just four days after the death of their teammate Chris Henry. Now, after attending Henry’s funeral earlier this week, they get the much easier task of facing the inept Kansas City Chiefs, giving the Bengals a chance to wrap up their division at home, after tough losses to Minnesota and San Diego on the road. On paper, this has the makings of a Bengals’ blowout, with their #3-ranked rushing attack, averaging 131 yards a game, going up against Kansas City’s swiss cheese run defense, which is ranked second-worst in the league, allowing 162 yards a game, and let Cleveland’s Jerome Harrison torch them for 286 yards last week. That mismatch indicates a blowout, but in reality, Cincinnati is effective, not flashy. All 13 of their games have been decided by an average of 9.8 points a game, while five of them have been decided by a field goal. And while I have little to no faith in Kansas City, especially after they allowed 41 points to the offensively-challenged Browns last week, the Chiefs have solid numbers when getting such help from the oddsmakers. They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog getting 10.5 points or more, and are 8-2 ATS as a dog getting those same points on the road. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite giving 10.5 points or more, are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as the home favorite, and are 0-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Bengals, who have dedicated the rest of their season to Henry, should be able to wrap up their division in front of their home fans, but will do so in a more modest fashion than a 14-point blowout. Chiefs +14
NY Giants @ Carolina; 1pm (FOX) Line: Giants by 5 Over/Under: 42.5
In a season full of streaks and inconsistencies, these two teams could be poster children for the league. After starting the season with three straight losses, Carolina rebounded with two wins in a row, and then have alternated wins and losses ever since except for a two-game losing streak in Weeks 11 and 12. The only thing you could count on from the Panthers was for QB Jake Delhomme to throw interceptions — he threw 18 picks in their first 11 games, before he missed the last three games due to an injured finger. Backup Matt Moore has stepped in and has been better throwing four TDs, with just two INTs, in his three starts. The Giants burst out of the gate with five straight wins, then imploded, losing their next four (albeit all of those to division leaders), and have alternated wins and losses ever since. If that pattern continues this week they are due for a loss, as they won last week, embarrasing the Redskins on MNF 45-12. Despite the fact that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two, Carolina has compelling numbers to suggest the Giants woes could return this week. The Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records, and are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against the NFC. The Giants, on the other hand, are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the NFC, and are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, are 1-5 ATS in their last six as the favorite, and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite at home. So much for the home field advantage. Panthers +5
Seattle @ Green Bay; 1pm (FOX) Line: Packers by 14 Over/Under: 41
Really, how much of a chance do the Seahawks have here? The only time they play well is at home, and they even messed that up last week, laying an egg against a sad-sack Tampa Bay team that smoked the Seahawks for just their second win of the season. Now, Seattle has to travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau to face a Packers team that is still steaming from a bitter last-second loss to the Steelers? Good luck. After that gut-wrenching loss, Green Bay linebacker said: “Losing like that makes you sick.” Well, Brandon, playing the visiting Seahawks this weekend ought to be like a few swigs of Pepto Bismol. Seattle is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC, and are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, 0-8 ATS in their last eight as an underdog on the road, and 0-6 ATS in their last six against a team with a winning record. On their own, those numbers ought to make Seahawks fans queasy. But wait, there’s more. Green Bay has won seven of the last 10 meetings between the two, and by an average of just under 19 points a game. The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record, the same 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as a favorite, and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six overall. Odds are good that after this game, the Seahawks will be plenty sleepless on their way back to Seattle. Packers -14
Houston @ Miami; 1pm (CBS) Line: Dolphins by 3 Over/Under: 45
This should be interesting. Houston and Miami are two of the six teams in the AFC locked in at 7-7, so not only would a win help their own causes, but would also strike quite a blow against the other teams chances to make the playoffs. The small spread number seems appropriate as four of the last five meetings between these two have been decided by three points or less, with Houston winning all four of those. (Miami won the other meeting 24-3) Houston played themselves out of the playoff race with a four-game losing streak (losing to Indy twice), but have rebounded with two straight wins to put themselves back on the bubble. Meanwhile Miami has won four of their last six, and are tied with the Jets for second-place in the AFC East, two games behind the Patriots. The Texans will use their #2-ranked passing offense to try to beat Miami, while the Dolphins will counter with their #4-ranked rushing attack. Houston has some good numbers on their side as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a road underdog, are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games in December, and the underdog is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two. But as a franchise, they have yet to turn the corner, always failing to win that pivotal game that could turn them from pretenders to contenders. While Miami has not defended home turf well — they are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 home games, they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC, are 5-0 ATS in their last five in December, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. This game does have the makings of a push, but I will side with Miami’s ability to run the ball and control the clock, and hope that they do not need a field goal at the end to win it. Dolphins -3
Oakland @ Cleveland; 1pm (CBS) Line: Browns by 3.5 Over/Under: 38
A week ago I would have jumped all over Cleveland here as QB Brady Quinn had actually been leading the Browns to be a little more competitive, and they were coming off a huge win over the Steelers. But a lot happened in a week. Yes, the Browns put 41 points on the board last week (thanks to RB Jerome Harrison’s 286 yards and WR/KR Joshua Cribbs’ two kickoff returns for touchdowns), and yes, they notched their second win in a row, but they lost Quinn for the year in the process (foot injury). Now this game will likely be a battle of former starting quarterbacks, as Derek Anderson will return to the lineup for Cleveland while JaMarcus Russell should return to taking snaps for the Raiders after throwing the winning TD pass last week against Denver (Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye are both questionable) Of course, with both teams’ inabilities to stop the run, how much will these two stiff QBs be asked to do? Cleveland has the #29-ranked run defense, allowing 149.9 yards a game, while Oakland is ranked one better (or one less crappy) at #28, allowing 148.9 yards a game. The Raiders scored a solid upset win over Denver last week, but each time they escaped with an impressive win over a much superior team, they have followed that up with an ugly game the following week. After beating Cincinnati in Week 11, they got smoked by Dallas in Week 12. After shocking the Steelers in Week 13, they got rocked by Washington in Week 14. If that trend continues, the Browns will be the latest weak team to bring the Raiders back down to earth after a big win. And there is no reason to think they cannot do so. The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC, are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall, and are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records. Oakland, meanwhile, is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog getting 3.5 points or less, are 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 against teams with losing records, and are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games in December. Yuck. Browns -3.5
Jacksonville @ New England; 1pm (CBS) Line: Patriots by 9 Over/Under: 43
While New England is riding a two-game winning streak, and is poised to clinch the AFC East with one more win — likely this weekend against the Jaguars — they have not looked overly impressive in the last six weeks, going just 3-3 and failing to cover the spread in five of those six games. Both the Jets and Dolphins did New England a favor last week, each of them losing, giving the Patriots a two-game lead over both teams. Even more unimpressive than New England’s little slide, however, is Jacksonville’s inability to win on the road as the Jaguars have lost four of their six road games this year, losing by an average of more than 21 points a game. (Although that number is a bit misleading as that includes the 41-0 drubbing they took from Seattle in Week 5. Remove that game, and that average drops to just over 15) So in spite of New England’s recent mediocrity, combine the Jaguars’ struggles on the road with the Patriots’ dominance in Foxboro — they are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this year — and you would be inclined to suspect an easy cover in this game. And the trends support that as well. Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in their last seven against the AFC, are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records. New England is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a favorite giving 10 points or less, and more recently are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite giving those same points. Head to head, Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two. Patriots -9
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans; 1pm (FOX) Line: Saints by 14.5 Over/Under: 50 – BET NOW!
Whether they like it or not, the monkey is off their backs. With Dallas’ upset over New Orleans last Saturday night, the Saints no longer have the perfect record to worry about. And while they were going after that undefeated record with all guns blazing, head coach Sean Payton is trying to spin straw into gold by saying that the loss will be good for them. That one blemish in the loss column will speak volumes over what he has been trying to tell his team — that you can’t just put on the uniform and expect to win every game. While the Saints had pulled off victories in all their games prior to the Cowboys game, they had been struggling more recently, covering the spread in just two of their last eight games, winning by an average of just 5.8 points a game in five of those straight-up wins. Between the narrow wins and now their first loss, they have been stripped of their aura of invincibility, much like QB Drew Brees was stripped of the ball by DeMarcus Ware in the Saints’ final drive last Saturday night. While they have no reason whatsoever this year to feel anything near invincible, the Buccaneers, are coming off a rare win, and it should be interesting to see how both teams handle their unfamiliar circumstances. Will the Buccaneers be able to ride any momentum from their second win of the season, or will they fold in the euphoria of it? Will the Saints come off their first loss with a new vigor, freshly motivated to re-establish their early season dominance or will the wind have been taken out of their sails after the loss? I tend to think that Payton and Brees will be able to rally and re-inspire the troops, but until I have seen tangible proof of it, I will err on the side of the numbers. And the numbers point to Tampa Bay, which does make me a little nervous. The Saints are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC, and are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Bucs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog getting 10.5 points or more, and are a surprising 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus a team with a winning record. Head to head, six of the last 10 meetings between the two have been decided by seven points or less, including three of the last four by three or four points, and the road team is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Buccaneers +14.5
St Louis @ Arizona; 4:05pm (FOX) Line: Cardinals by 14 Over/Under: 43.5
Despite Arizona clinching its second straight NFC West title last week, Cardinals fans have to be a little worried. After dominating Minnesota in their Week 13 win over the Vikings, the Cardinals have been very unimpressive since. They turned the ball over seven times in a loss to the 49ers on Monday Night Football two weeks ago, and then last Sunday, blew a 17-point lead and barely escaped Detroit with a 31-24 win over the stinky Lions. While it is no shocker that the Rams lost again last week, their sixth straight, they did manage to keep it close again. Longer term trends show no reason to have faith in the Rams, but shorter term, they are much improved, as they have covered six of their last nine games, and seven of those last nine have been decided by 10 points or less, well within the spread that they are working under against the Cardinals this weekend. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in December, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC. Arizona is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, and head to head, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Full of fear, but because of the big number, I will take the dog. Rams +14
Detroit @ San Francisco; 4:05pm (FOX) Line: 49ers by 11.5 Over/Under: 41
The Niners need wins in their last two games to finish at .500 for the season. Despite being out of the playoff race, head coach Mike Singletary will likely have them motivated to finish 8-8 as an important stepping stone for next season. They have shown flashes of improvement this year, but have only alternated wins and losses since they ended a four-game losing streak in Week 10, the first Thursday night game of the year. If (or should I say when) they beat the Lions this weekend, it will be San Francisco’s first two-game winning streak since the first two weeks of the season, There is no such optimism in Detroit as they have lost four in a row, and are winless on the road this year, going 0-7 SU, and losing those seven games by an average of 22 points a game. An average of 22 points. And the atrocious numbers do not end there. The Lions are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games against teams with losing home records, and are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine overall. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams under .500 and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against the NFC. But wait, there’s more. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games, and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog, even when getting a healthy 10.5 points or more. Someone please remind me why I am still a friggin Lions fan? Not that you really need numbers to support the Niners when the Lions’ stats are so bad, but just for balance, San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as a favorite giving 10.5 points or more, and are 11-5-3 ATS in their last 19 overall. Head to head, more ineptitude for the Lions as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five trips to San Francisco, and are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings overall. Maybe I should have asked for a new football team for Christmas. 49ers -11.5
Denver @ Philadelphia; 4:15pm (CBS) Line: Eagles by 7 Over/Under: 41.5
For the Philadelphia Eagles, it is a case of the rich getting richer. Already rolling along with five straight wins, and more offensive weapons than a Swiss Army knife, the Eagles are expecting RB Brian Westbrook back for this game against Denver. Westbrook has missed the last five games after suffering his second concussion within three weeks in a game against the Chargers in Week 10. The Eagles have won seven of their last nine, averaging 29.2 points a game over that stretch, and winning those seven games by an average of 12.5 points a game. While Philly has been red-hot, the Broncos have been luke warm at best, but they still hold a playoff spot, albeit by the skin of their teeth, as there are six teams right behind them, all at 7-7 that are trying to jump into the playoff saddle. The Broncos did not do themselves any favors last week by crapping the bed against Oakland, losing to the Raiders outright despite being favored by 11. And as you might expect from a team that has lost six of its last eight (after starting the season 6-0), there are not many reasons to take them, numerical or otherwise. Denver is 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS loss, and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in December, and are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia, on the other hand is flying high. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite giving between 3.5 and 10 points, and are 4-1 ATS both as a favorite and overall. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four December games, and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home. Eagles -7
NY Jets @ Indianapolis; 4:15pm (CBS) Line: Colts by 5.5 Over/Under 41
Jets head coach Rex Ryan had some fun in a press conference Wednesday, reading off a list of key Indianapolis players that would not be playing, then jokingly apologized, saying that that was his wish list for Santa. I don’t think Ryan has been on the nice list enough this year for Santa to bring him that kind of gift. The philosophy of the Colts seems to be toward resting players to get them healthy for the playoffs, but if the fight to the bitter end that they showed in their game against Jacksonville last Thursday night is any indication, that philosophy is just talk. Few people in the league, if any, have more respect for the tradition and history of the NFL than QB Peyton Manning.
Will the Colts Stay Perfect? Make Your NFL Bet!
As long as perfection is still an option, I think the Colts will go for it. And this game against the Jets, who are still battling for a playoff berth is their most serious threat against perfection, as the Colts travel to Buffalo next week to play the lowly BIlls, who have nothing left to play for this season other than maybe playing a spoiler role. Great matchups will be featured in this game as the Jets have the league’s best passing defense and overall defense to combat Indy’s #1-ranked passing offense, and the Jets will try to use their the #1-ranked rushing attack to control the ball, and help keep Manning and company off the field. While RB Joseph Addai is useful as a pass catcher, too, and has found the end zone 12 times, the Colts are ranked dead last in rushing, averaging just 86 yards a game. Gang Green really hurt their chances of making the playoffs last week when their offense failed to score more than seven points, blowing their game against the Falcons. While the Jets are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog, they are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in December, are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss, and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. Indianapolis, on the other hand, is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games both as a favorite and overall. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in December and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents. Head to head, all of the numbers favor the Colts, also. The home team is 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine, and the Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five trips to Indianapolis. The drive for perfection continues. Colts -5.5
Dallas @ Washington; 8:20pm (NBC) Line: Cowboys by 6.5 Over/Under: 42.5 – BET NOW!
Are Dallas’ December swooning problems over? They looked awfully impressive in beating the previously unbeaten Saints last Saturday night. Does that mean they are ready and able to reverse their fortunes (or lack thereof), in the month of December, and put an end to their recent history of collapsing down the stretch? Don’t bet on it. One game does not make or break a streak make. But they are playing the woeful Redskins, who looked absolutely clueless last Monday night, as the Giants throttled them 45-12. But one game does not make or break a streak. As bad as they were last week, the Redskins had been playing reasonably well for the four weeks prior to that, winning once, and losing the other three games by a total of just seven points. So while the Cowboys are in the thick of the playoff hunt and are coming off their biggest win of the season, Washington comes limping into this game, having been embarrassed on national TV. But does that recent history really matter? This is one of those division rivalries in which recent history and logic do not co-exist. Going into their previous meeting this year, Dallas was cruising, having had won four of five, and averaging 25.6 points a game over that stretch, while Washington was reeling, having lost four of five. But Washington held Dallas in check all game, shutting them out until they put the winning TD on the board with less than three minutes left in the game for a one-point victory. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have been decided by five points or less, within the spread for this week’s matchup. Dallas is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, while Washington is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, so let’s just say that those two stats cancel each other out. There are plenty of other numbers to look at. Dallas’ history of late season swoonage still looms, despite last week’s win, as they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five against the NFC East, and are 0-4 ATS in their last four as the road favorite. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last four against teams with winning records, are 4-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall. Head to head, the Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings, but the underdog is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 meetings. Redskins +6.5
Minnesota @ Chicago; Monday, 8:30pm (ESPN) Line: Vikings by 7 Over/Under: 41
Is the honeymoon over? Reports have been trumpeted out of Minnesota this week about disagreements and arguments between actual head coach Brad Childress and head-coach-on-the-field/QB Brett Favre, being fuelled by video of what appeared to be heated discussions on the sidelines about Favre coming out of the game during Minnesota’s ugly loss to Carolina last Sunday night. Both parties downplayed the scenario, with Childress calling the exchange “streams of consciousness”. What the hell does that mean? I think that it means that they are trying to explain away the fact that the Vikings are starting to falter, having lost two of their last three and having missed a purple-and-golden opportunity to pick up a game on New Orleans for the top seed in the NFC conference when the Saints lost to the Cowboys the night before. As much praise as he received, and deservedly so, for his success through their first 11 games — throwing for 24 TDs, and just three INTs, Old Man Favre has to take some heat for his more recent performances — three TDs, and four picks in their last three games.
But it is not only Favre’s cross to bear. The offensive line, which has been so solid all season has started to crumble, allowing Favre to get battered and bruised, and also not creating a lot of running room for RB Adrian Peterson, who has not rushed for 100 yards in a game in five weeks (against Detroit, naturally). But maybe a date with the underachieving division rival Chicago Bears will allow the Vikings to regain their footing. Odds are good that they will get more than their fair share of chances as I am sure that QB Jay Cutler will gift wrap a couple passes to the Minnesota secondary. (How about we give Cutler a nickname for the holidays? Chicago Bear Claus? Sorry.) There is a ton of gaudy numbers that would discourage anyone from taking the Bears here. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC North, and 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 against the NFC overall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at home, are 0-7 ATS in their last seven overall, and are 1-11 ATS in their last dozen games as an underdog. Conversely, there are many reasons to take Minnesota, such as the fact that they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC North, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record. But given that this is the last pick I am making before Christmas, let’s think a little outside the gift box. Minnesota is also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in December. And head to head, the Vikings are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Chicago, while the home team is a solid 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Let’s give the dog a bone. Bears +7
Last week’s record: 6-8-2
Overall record: 114-108-2
Merry Christmas to all of you, from all of us here at nflposts.com!
