Thursday
NFL Betting, NFL News, Opinion, Top PostsNFL Odds Week 12: Patriots challenge perfect Saints
BRAD LECLAIR
NFLPosts.com Gambling Fool
By the time this week’s Monday night game kicks off, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend is over. The turkey is just a carcass, all the good dishes have been put away and you have eaten enough turkey sandwiches that you may start to sprout feathers. But when everyone was going around the dinner table saying what they were thankful for, I hope no one forgot about the Patrots-Saints game. The end of Thanksgiving marks the beginning of the Christmas season and this game is your first present. Thanks, Uncle Roger! It’s just what I wanted.
New England @ New Orleans; Monday 8:30pm (ESPN) Line: Saints by 3 Over/Under: 54.5
The New Orleans Saints are perfect. Still. And no wonder. They are first in the league in rushing touchdowns (19) and passing touchdowns (22). They’ve gained the most yards (420.5) and score the most points every week (36.9), largely because they get so many contributions from so many different players. Fourteen different players have scored touchdowns for the Saints (10-0). And they can play a little defense, too. Their ball-hawking defense is +10 in turnover margin – good for third in the league – and they are ranked 13th in overall defense, and up until last weekend, the New Orleans’ defense had scored more TDs than the Cleveland offense.
If all this sounds familiar, it might be because this year’s Saints are a lot like the New England Patriots were in 2007, when they went a perfect 16-0 through the regular season. And that is the X-factor that makes this game such a treat. The Patriots (7-3) showed no residual hangover from their crushing loss to Indianapolis two weeks ago. They felt the sharks circling Bill Belichick, and they rallied around their head coach after his questionable call to go for it on fourth-and-2 against the Colts backfired. Having blown that opportunity to strike down one undefeated team, the Pats get their second chance in three weeks to prevent an opponent from achieving what they did two seasons ago – a perfect regular season. And while they might not admit it, the Patriots likely realize they are the toughest test left for New Orleans. After the New England game, the combined record of the Saints’ final five opponents is 21-30.
New Orleans seems to have slowed down a bit, averaging an 18.5-point margin of victory in their first six wins, but just 7.6 points in a three-game span before bouncing back to throttle Tampa Bay 38-7 last week. Their secondary will be short-handed as CB Tracey Porter is out indefinitely while CB Jabari Greer is listed as questionable.
As you would expect from a team with a perfect record, there are lots of numbers to support taking them to cover. The Saints are 7-3 against the point spread in their last 10 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite, and 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 overall. But New England is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog, 4-0 SU in its last four regular-season visits to the Superdome and 8-3 in its last 11 meetings with the Saints, including winners of the last three. With the Saints banged up and slowing down, and New England’s motivation to play spoiler, this could bring about New Orleans’ first loss. That said, I am happy to take the points. Patriots +3
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta; 1pm (FOX) Line: Falcons by 11.5 Over/Under: 46
It has been quite a reversal of fortunes for the Falcons after they flew out of the gate, winning four of their first five games. But they have since fallen back down to earth, having lost four of their last five, with their only win coming against a weak Redskins team. Even last week’s three-point loss is a little misleading as they needed 24 second-half points to come back to tie the Giants, who had lost four in a row going into that contest. The Falcons (5-5) lost the coin toss and lost the game with their offense not even getting a chance to touch the ball in the extra quarter. Despite their ugly 1-9 record, the Bucs come into this game playing much improved lately; last week’s beatdown by the Saints notwithstanding. Tampa Bay got its first win of the year three weeks ago in an upset over Green Bay, then almost won their second in a row, losing to Miami in the dying seconds, before getting smoked by New Orleans. The trends dictate leaning toward Atlanta, as the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four games, and 4-1 ATS in their last five as a favorite. But covering such a large spread could prove to be more difficult. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite giving 10.5 points or more, while head to head, the Bucs are 9-5 SU in their last 14 meetings with the Falcons, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine visits to Atlanta. Six of those last 14 meetings have been decided by less than this week’s 11.5-point spread, four of which have been decided by three points or less. Buccaneers +11.5
Miami @ Buffalo; 1pm (CBS) Line: Dolphins by 3 Over/Under: 40
Another week, another tough test for the Buffalo defense. Then again, when you have the worst rushing defense in the league, every week is a challenge. The Bills catch a break as the Dolphins come into town without their Wildcat frontman RB Ronnie Brown, who is out for the season with a foot injury. But the Dolphins have barely missed him as Ricky Williams has stepped up huge in his absence, finishing with 102 yards in the game against Tampa Bay during which Brown was injured, and rushing for 119 yards and two touchdowns (plus catching a third TD) in last week’s Thursday nighter against Carolina. That output made the 32-year-old the oldest Miami RB to run for 100 yards in consecutive games, and he’ll be looking to make it three in a row against the porous Bills. The first meeting between these two was the first step for Miami in turning around its season. The Dolphins were at 0-3 when they met in Week 4, and Brown and Williams gouged the Bills for 250 yards for a 38-10 victory, propelling them to win five of their next seven games to become a factor in the wild-card race, and sit two games behind New England, which they play next week. In his debut last week as Bills interim head coach Perry Fewell inserted Ryan Fitzpatrick as QB, and he had an instant chemistry with WR Terrell Owens, who had nine receptions for 197 yards, including a 98-yard TD. The Bills’ defense did manage to hold Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew to just 66 yards last week, but such an effort two weeks in a row seems unlikely. The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six against the AFC East, are 5-2 in their last seven overall, and are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. Buffalo is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a home underdog, and an ugly 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home. Neither team is strong in the end, as the Bills have allowed 109 points in the fourth quarter, second only to Miami, which has allowed 110. But that stat should cancel itself out, long after the Dolphins have already run away with this game. Dolphins -3
Cleveland @ Cincinnati; 1pm (CBS) Line: Bengals by 14 Over/Under: 39.5
Leave it to the Browns to score 37 points … and lose. Entering last week’s game, they had scored 78 total points all season. So last week, they scored almost half the amount they scored in their other nine games combined. And they lost. QB Brady Quinn threw more TD passes in that one game (4) than he had thrown in his career (3). And they lost. They got their first touchdown from a WR (Mohamed Massaquoi) all season and they lost. They had a 24-3 lead in the first quarter. And they lost. Ouch. To be a Browns fan, yikes. But maybe they can take solace in the fact their offense is starting to come around? Uh, no. They were playing Detroit. Hardly a defense that you can get gauge your offensive skills on. Baby steps, Browns fans. Take what you can get. That offense will be a one-hit wonder, as the Browns head to Cincinnati to take on the defense-minded Bengals. And Cincinnati faced demons of its own last week, which it will be looking to exorcise. In a game that they should have put away early, the Bengals imploded, fumbled three times, and allowed the lowly Raiders to score 10 points in 18 seconds to steal a victory. Cincinnati bungled that game away. And with RB Cedric Benson likely to return, and the Bengals looking to make a statement and bounce back, Browns backers might want to temper any enthusiasm that last week gave them. Cincinnati has already swept the season series from division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, both of which are much, much better than Cleveland. I see no reason to think the Browns can earn the split. But, having said that, I still like Cleveland to keep it close. At least within the number. The first meeting between these two was decided by a field goal, in overtime no less. Cincinnati has won the last two meetings, and eight of the last 10 SU, but is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Twelve of the last 15 meetings between these two teams have come within this week’s spread, decided by 14 or less. Eight of those have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five between these two. The underdogs from the Dawg Pound ought to make that six in a row. Browns +14
Indianapolis @ Houston; 1pm (CBS) Line: Colts by 3.5 Over/Under: 49
The Colts are a dominating and model franchise in the world of sports, not just the NFL. The Texans are like their little brother that wants to be them when they grow up. The Colts are close to clinching home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, while the Texans are chasing their first playoff berth in their short history. The Colts have the second-longest regular-season winning streak in NFL history (19 games, behind only New England’s 21-gamer between ‘06-’08). The Texans (5-5) are looking for their first win in a month, having lost their last two, with their bye week in between. Yet, this has become an interesting rivalry, with David so often on the verge of beating Goliath before Goliath yanks the slingshot out of his hand. The Colts (10-0) have struggled lately, if that is possible for a team that is still undefeated, winning their last four games by a total of 10 points combined, for an average of 2.5 points a game. The Texans have been competitive in every game this year, with three of their five losses being by a field goal, losing the last two games by an identical 20-17 score, with K Kris Brown missing field goals in the dying seconds of each that would have forced overtime. (A 42-yarder and a 49-yarder, hardly chip shots.) These two teams battled to one of those two 20-17 games three weeks ago and seem on a collision course for another nail-biter. Despite their records, these two teams are almost mirror images. Both rely on pass-heavy offenses. QB Peyton Manning has 21 TDs and 9 INTs for the Colts and has thrown for 300 yards in eight of his 10 games (plus 299 last week), while Texans’ QB Matt Schaub has thrown for 19 TDs and 9 INTs, and six 300-yard games. Both teams struggle to run the ball with Houston ranked 30th in the league with 87.4 yards a game, while Indianapolis is just one spot ahead at 85 yards a game. While the Colts have dominated the series 14-1, five of the last six games between them have been decided by six points or less, and three of those 15 games have been decided by a field goal. I think that happens again here, so that extra half-point is huge. Texans +3.5
Carolina @ NY Jets; 1pm (FOX) Line: Jets by 3 Over/Under: 41.5
The Carolina Panthers are a difficult team to figure out. They won their division, and tied the Giants for the best record in the conference (12-4) last season, before getting upset at home in the NFC playoffs by Arizona. With playoff aspirations again this year, they stumbled out of the blocks, losing their first three games, but then winning four of their next six to get back into the wild-card race. But they faltered again, losing to Miami in last week’s Thursday nighter, allowing RB Ricky Williams to rush for 119 yards and two TDs. The Jets are easier to understand, as they are just in an all-out tailspin, losing five of their last six games, and playing themselves right out of the playoffs. Easier still to conclude is that this game will be determined on the ground. The Jets have the second-best rushing attack in the league, averaging 163.5 yards a game, while the Panthers are ranked third, gaining 159 yards a week. But not only are their running games similarly good, their passing attacks have been equally horrible this year. While Carolina QB Jake Delhomme was ridiculed at the start of the year for throwing more completions to his opponents than to his own receivers, he has improved, throwing just one interception in the last four games. He has 14 on the year, two more than he threw all of last year, and two short of his career high. Meanwhile, Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has caught up to, and passed Delhomme on the crap-o-meter, having thrown 14 picks in his last seven games, including four last week, giving him 16 on the year. In a game that is going to feature the running game so prominently, I tend to like the underdog, and the numbers do back that up. Not because Carolina is so strong, but rather because the Jets are so weak. The Panthers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games versus a team with a losing record, and are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog getting three points or less. The Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight against a team with a losing record, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight at home. They are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall. As I said, weak. Panthers +3
Washington @ Philadelphia; 1pm (FOX) Line: Eagles by 9 Over/Under: 40.5
Going into this week the Eagles are tied with the Giants for second place in the NFC East, one game behind Dallas. By the time they kickoff Sunday, none of that will be true as both the Giants and Cowboys are in action on Thanksgiving Day. All three teams are favored to win, and none of them can afford to give away opportunities with the log jam at the top of the division. And given how important division records will be come playoff time, Philadelphia has more to lose if it was to be upset by their cellar-dwelling division rival. Good thing for the Eagles, that is not likely. Washington has lost five of its last six games and its last eight road games, including last week’s tough 7-6 loss at Dallas. While Washington has provided weak teams with their first win of the season three different times this season (Detroit, Carolina, KC), the Redskins often keep the battles close no matter who they play. Five of their seven losses have been decided by eight points or less, and this matchup should be no different. Injuries could hamper Washington as CB DeAngelo Hall and DT Albert Haynesworth are both questionable, while RB Clinton Portis is doubtful and last week’s starting RB Ladell Betts is out for the season. Third-string RB Rock Cartwright will get the start. But if the ‘Skins can overcome the injuries, they are likely to have another close battle. The normal trends point moreso to Philadelphia, as the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a home favorite and 11-6 SU in their last 17 against the ‘Skins. But seven of the last 10 games have been decided by less than this week’s spread (9), while the underdog and the road team are both 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, both of those facts favor Washington. Redskins +9
Seattle @ St Louis; 1pm (FOX) Line: Seahawks by 3 Over/Under:42
Wow, there is a lot of ugly attached to this game. Seattle has not won on the road in almost a full year, having lost its six games away from Qwest Field. And in those five losses this season, the Seahawks have lost by an average of 17 points, giving up an average of 32.5 points. Last week’s 35-9 beatdown in Minnesota was just the latest debacle. Ugly. St Louis has lost its last 10 home games, losing by an average of 19 points this season. Uglier. So much for home-field advantage, although the Rams have defended home turf better lately, losing their last two home games to two quality teams – Arizona (7-3) and New Orleans (10-0) – by a total of 13 points. Not surprisingly, the Rams will try to ride RB Steven Jackson, who is second in the league with 1,031 yards, to a win, as he tries for a fifth consecutive 100-yard game. And despite having the worst rushing offense in the NFL, averaging less than 85 yards a game, the Seahawks will look to duplicate the success they had against St Louis’ swiss-cheese run defense. Seattle shredded St Louis for 167 yards in their season-opening 28-0 dismantling of the Rams, who are allowing 146 yards a game on the ground. Despite their inability to win on the road, the Seahawks are still the play here as they are 11-5 SU in the last 16 games in this series, and they have won the last nine straight over the hornless Rams. Seahawks -3
Kansas City @ San Diego; 4:05pm (CBS) Line: Chargers by 13.5 Over/Under: 44.5
Okay, this is shaping up to be one of those anomaly games. A bad team giving a good team a run for its money against all conventional wisdom. Outside of the undefeated Colts and Saints, and the 9-1 Vikings, the Chargers (7-3) are the hottest team in football, having won their last five games in a row. And they are playing host to the Chiefs, who are a very unimpressive 3-7, with two of their wins coming against the lowly Redskins and Raiders. But instead of coming in quietly and under the radar, Kansas City comes into this game trumpets blaring after it shocked the world last week by stunning the Steelers in overtime. The last time these two teams met, San Diego was spinning its wheels at 2-3, but throttled the Chiefs 37-7 in Kansas City, kickstarting its current five-game winning streak. The Chargers’ defense has found some serious rhythm as they have allowed less than 14 points a game and racked up 20 sacks over that five-game span. Kansas City is scoring 10 points less a game, and is allowing 3.5 points more a game, all of which adds up to the Chargers laying another beating on the Chiefs, but here is where the insanity ensues. The Chiefs are a solid 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog getting 10.5 points or more, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the AFC West, and are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall. The series is split just about down the middle as San Diego has won nine of the last 17 meetings SU, but 13 of those wins have been decided by less than this week’s 13.5 spread, and seven of those decided by a field goal or less. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups, and the underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Chiefs +13.5
Jacksonville @ San Francisco; 4:05pm (CBS) Line: 49ers by 3 Over/Under: 41.5
I have a love-hate relationship with the Jaguars. I often love them as an underdog, but usually hate them as the favorite. But I also hate three-point spreads, so what do I do here when Jacksonville is getting three points? Avoid the game like the plague, if only I could. But I can’t, so let’s try to work it out. Even when riding a three-game winning streak as they are currently, I have a hard time having much confidence in the Jaguars (6-4). Who have they beaten in those three games? Only the Bills, the Jets and the Chiefs, teams with a combined 10-20 record. And they only won those games by three, two, and three points, respectively. Of their 10 games, five of them have been decided by three points or less. So, lacking confidence in Jacksonville, I should go with San Francisco, right? Think again. After starting the season 3-1, the Niners have lost five of their last six, needing to outscore Green Bay 21-7 in the second half last week just to make that game seem close. San Francisco (4-6) has never beaten Jacksonville but seeing as they have only played each other four times in 13 years, and not since 2005, that is not overly comforting. There are not good numbers at all to support the Jaguars – they are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road underdog getting three points or less, and 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. San Francisco is 6-1-2 ATS in its last eight against a team with a winning record, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight at home and 9-3-3 ATS in its last 15 overall. But again, the 49ers have lost five of their last six, which leaves me feeling less confident in them than the inconsistent Jaguars. This is why I hate Jacksonville. And three-point spreads. But I hate giving points with a team that has lost five of six more. So what do I do with all this hate? I plug my nose and take the dog. Jaguars +3
Chicago @ Minnesota; 4:15pm (FOX) Line: Vikings by 10.5 Over/Under: 47
Is there a more complete team in the NFL than the Minnesota Vikings? Not a better team, but a more complete team. They have the second-best offense in the league, averaging 30.6 points, and the third-ranked run defense, allowing just 85.4 yards a game. They have the No. 2-ranked RB in rushing TDs, Adrian Peterson (11), the No. 2-ranked QB in TD passes, Brett Favre (21), and defensive-player-of-the-year candidate Jared Allen (9.5 sacks). They have the top-ranked scoring defense in the league, but perhaps the most impressive statistic of all of these is that not once this season have the Vikings allowed an opponent to score after giving up a turnover. Even when someone does make a mistake, someone else picks him up by shutting the other team down. Speaking of turnovers, the most complete team in the league is playing against a team that cranks out more turnovers than a pastry chef. Chicago QB Jay Cutler leads the league in interceptions, throwing for more INTs (18) than TDs (15), a big reason why the Bears (4-6) have lost five of their last six. Normally in a bitter divisional game such as this, and with a spread of more than two scores, I would jump all over the underdog. And the fact that 11 of the last 16 games between these two has been decided by less than this week’s spread (10.5) would support that play. But in this case, the disparities are just too telling to overlook. In four games against Chicago, Peterson has rushed for 554 yards and eight TDs, his most against any other opponent. Minnesota has won three of the four games since Peterson’s arrival. And just for good measure, throw in the fact that this will be Favre’s first game against Chicago since joining the Vikings, and you have him extra motivated to stick it to another division rival. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last six against the NFC North, 1-6 in its last seven road games, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine as the underdog. Combine that with the fact the Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC, and that the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two, and you have support for a blowout. Vikings -10.5
Arizona @ Tennessee; 4:15pm (FOX) Line: Titans by 1 Over/Under: 48
Very interesting line here. With Vince Young back at QB and RB Chris Johnson tearing up the turf, the Titans have gotten their groove back, reeling off four wins a row, by an average of 12.7 points, the first time any team has won four straight after starting 0-6. Young has provided the spark and his ability to run with the ball has enabled him to prolong Tennessee’s scoring drives. Against the Texans last Monday night, Young had 73 yards on 11 carries, gaining first downs on six of those carries. And if Young has been the shock the Titans needed, Johnson has been the awe, as in awesome. He has rushed for 1,242 yards on the season, already eclipsing his total from last year, has had five 100 yard games in a row, and has averaged 161.5 yards per game over the four-game winning streak. But even with all the improvement, the Titans remain two games under .500, while Arizona (7-3) is undefeated on the road this year and has won six of its last seven. QB Kurt Warner, who was taken out of the game following a touchdown drive after having his head slammed into the turf, is expected to play, preventing a showdown between Young and Arizona’s backup QB Matt Leinart, the two QBs that squared off against each other in the 2006 Rose Bowl. (Young was incredible in that game, rushing for 200 yards and three TDs, leading Texas over USC 41-38.) Deciding which side of the fence to fall on in this game is hard as the 1-point spread provides no cushion, and both teams are red hot. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite giving three points or less, but are 1-5 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records and are 0-6 ATS in their last six Sunday games following a Monday nighter. Arizona is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six road games and 7-0 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. The edge is ever so slightly in favor of Arizona. Cardinals +1
EXTRA POINT: The over looks like an attractive play here, too, as the Cardinals are averaging 25 points and the Titans are averaging 31 points since Young has returned to the starting lineup.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore; 8:20pm (NBC) Line: Ravens by 1 Over/Under: 38
If the matchup between the Saints and Patriots is an early Christmas gift, then this game has got to be a great stocking stuffer. If it were not for the magnitude of the Monday nighter, this would undoubtedly be the game of the week. Two old-school football teams, specializing in good ol-fashioned, bruising, rock ‘em sock ‘em smashmouth football. And two teams battling it out for second place in the AFC North, trying to keep pace with the first-place Bengals, who swept the season series from both these teams. Now they have their first of two grudge matches in the next five weeks. Steeler Nation is still bamboozled, wondering how the Chiefs, the Kansas City friggin’ Chiefs, managed to pull off their stunning upset over the black and gold last week. And Ravens fans are trying to figure out how their team’s offense has failed to produce a touchdown in the last two weeks. Baltimore (5-5) moved the ball enough against the Colts last week (403 total yards to Indy’s 413), but the Ravens could not break the plain of the goal line and had to settle for FGs, rather than TDs. (Don’t ask me why they did not hand the ball off to their best offensive weapon, RB Ray Rice, when they had first and goal inside the 1. And I am not just asking that because I have Rice in fantasy football. Not just for that reason alone, at least.) It may be a bitter pill to swallow, but Ravens backers can take some level of comfort in the fact that all five of their losses have come at the hands of division leaders (Indy, Min, NE and Cincy twice). But that and a quarter will get you a phone call. They need more. They need results. And no better time to start than now against the Steelers (6-4), the team that beat them three times last season, including in the AFC title game. Injuries could play a big role in this game. Baltimore could be missing three-time Pro Bowl linebacker Terrell Suggs, who sat out last week’s game, his first missed game in his seven-year career, with a sprained knee. Missing Suggs would likely be welcome news for Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked 10 times in the three games against Baltimore last year, and is expected to play despite suffering what was called a “mild concussion”. The Steelers will likely miss CB Troy Polamalu, which will hurt their defense, but they might want to focus on improving their special teams. They have allowed four kickoff returns for TDs in their last five games, which have proved to be the difference in the game in both of their last two losses (against Cincinnati and KC). The under could attract some interest as both defenses are allowing less than 18 points a game and both offenses are averaging 18 points or less over the last few weeks. In six of their last 10 meetings, the total has come in at this week’s over/under number (38) or less. As for the winner of this grudge match, it is a very close to call. I would normally prefer to take the team that has more history with adversity – the Steelers – but the numbers lean toward the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall and 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games, while Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games, 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games overall; head to head, the Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Baltimore. Ravens -1
Last week’s record: 11-5
Overall record: 87-73 (not including Thanksgiving picks)
Thanksgiving Day picks: Packers -10.5, Raiders +13.5 and Broncos +6.5
