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NFL News, Opinion, Top PostsSuper Bowl XLIV Preview – Manning, Colts to march over Saints
ADRIAN BRIJBASSI
NFLPosts.com Editor
The Super Bowl has been on a roll. Gone are the days when the game was a joke, a lopsided affair won by a powerhouse from the NFC. Of the past 12 Lombardi Trophy battles, only three have been decided by more than two touchdowns. Four have been won by the margin of a field goal, two others by a touchdown and last year’s game, arguably the best of them all, by four points.
Could we possibly see another classic? One that could stand up next to either of the previous two finals?
I’d like to think so, but looking at this matchup and being awestruck at the level of play Peyton Manning has elevated himself to, I have to say no. This game has the makings of an ugly blowout.
I like the Saints and think Drew Brees doesn’t get nearly enough publicity for the supreme citizen-athlete he is. Manning, though, has just come off a 377-yard, three-TD performance that years from now could go down as the best game he’s ever played. He did it against the top defense in football and one that had succeeded in neutralizing his top two targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
Now, he goes against a defense that ranked 25th in the regular season in yards allowed per game (357.8) and 26th in average passing yards (235.6). Saints cornerback Tracy Porter looked ordinary against the Vikings. Sure, Porter made the big interception against Brett Favre in the final seconds of the NFC Championship Game and forced a Bernard Berrian fumble, but he drew a pass-interference penalty that set up one Minnesota touchdown and Favre exploited his inability to cover Berrian (102 yards) throughout the game.
Manning will target him relentlessly, whether he’s on Wayne or No. 2 wideout Pierre Garcon.
While Brees will definitely go to work on the Colts’ suspect cornerbacks too, Indianapolis has a much stronger front seven than New Orleans. A handful of three and outs by the Saints is all Manning will need to put this game out of reach.
Really, the only hope New Orleans has is Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby on special teams. That’s the Colts’ biggest weakness, and one of the Saints’ strengths. If either return man can break one, the momentum could swing and perhaps Darren Sharper can snatch a pick and the Saints can keep it close. Counting on “ifs” isn’t good, though.
The certainty of Manning creates a lot of that worry about New Orleans. When great athletes are at the top of their game, they don’t lose. We know this from watching Wayne Gretzky, Michael Jordan and Joe Montana. Manning is of that caliber. Scary good. Immortal. Someone you should know better than to bet against.
BAD OMEN FOR THE SAINTS
Not counting the first Super Bowl, only eight franchises have won the championship in their first appearance in the title game. Even worse, since 1986-87, when the Giants won in their first appearance, first-timers have gone a woeful 2-8 and are on a 0-4 stretch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints’ NFC South rivals, were the last team to win the first time around, beating the Raiders 48-21 in Super Bowl XXXVII.
This will be the Colts’ fourth appearance and second in four years. They’re 2-1 in title games.
The Saints, of course, are making their first appearance, leaving behind a sad-sack final four of Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland and Detroit as the only teams to have never reached a Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL ODDS and PICKS
The opening betting line for Super Bowl XLIV favored the Colts by 4 against the point spread. That quickly ballooned to 5.5 and by the time the game kicks off on February 7 (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS), expect it to advance to a touchdown. Smart money poured in on the Colts against the Jets, moving the line for the AFC title game from 7.5 to 9.
Manning is a 1/1 pick to win his second Super Bowl MVP – and that sounds like easy money.
I’d wager on the Colts to win 41-24, meaning the total will go over the posted 56, and on Reggie Wayne to top the century mark for receiving yards. And, given that the coin flip in the overtime of the Saints-Vikings game was tails, I’d bet on heads this time.
FOUR AND OUT
Proof of disorder in the universe: That Brett Favre can still walk after the beating he took Sunday night.
You know you’re an evil Republican if…: You deride a foreign country’s health-care system as third world for failing to give you adequate treatment. What MMA star Brock Lesnar failed to realize was millions of people in the United States can’t get the health care he so wanted in Canada because of GOP policies.
iPhone app you’ll never live without: iSuperBowl Commercial (free). Funny commercials, including some that were not broadcast.
Coolest song of the week: Sunday Bloody Sunday by U2 (last week: All Along the Watchtower by Bruce Springsteen and Neil Young)
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