Sunday

Super Bowl odds drop, Colts now favored by only 5

Peyton Manning’s mystique may be just that as far as Super Bowl gamblers are concerned. Late money from NFL bettors has been pouring in on the New Orleans Saints, a surprise given Manning’s stature and the prediction by many experts that the Indianapolis Colts will claim their second title in four years on Sunday.

Most online and Las Vegas-based sportsbooks opened with the Colts as 5.5-point favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV. But the point spread fell to 5 – and in some cases 4.5 – late on Saturday, clearly indicating that the game is expected to be closer than some prognosticators predict. In the gambling world, those who put down their money late are known as sharp bettors because they wait until they’ve gathered as much information as possible and for the sportsbooks to make adjustments to the betting line based on the decisions by early bettors.

The aim of oddsmakers is to set a line that will earn equal support for both teams. When there’s an imbalance in the action, they move the line to again create balanced betting. In most cases, the line for a game as big as the Super Bowl usually moves up because the general public considers favorites to be safer bets than underdogs.

What the line shift for the Super Bowl indicates is:

1. Oddsmakers feel Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury is going to play a factor in the outcome. The Colts’ All-Pro defensive end remains questionable for Super Sunday and even if he does play, the torn ligaments in his right ankle figure to curtail his effectiveness.

2. A lot of sentimental money from casual bettors is falling on the Saints’ side. Who Dat Nation has grown by millions over the course of the past two weeks and people are willing to put their money where their hearts are, it seems.

3. Sharp bettors think these teams are more evenly matched than the media are saying. Although the Colts aren’t heavy favorites, very few NFL experts are picking the Saints to pull off the upset. It’s possible Manning’s aura is shadowing the truth: Drew Brees and the Saints have a much more balanced team than Indianapolis and if they can run the ball effectively they can control the clock, and send the French Quarter into a pre-Mardi Gras frenzy.

SUPER BOWL ODDS and GAME INFO

Who: New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Date: Sunday, February 7, 6:30 p.m. ET; TV: CBS
Point spread: 5; over/under: 56
National anthem performer: Carrie Underwood
Halftime act: The Who
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami

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