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NFL News, Opinion, Top PostsSuper Bowl XLIV preview: How Colts, Saints match up
ADRIAN BRIJBASSI
NFLPosts.com Editor
What? Too early for a Super Bowl preview? If ever there was a year we could forecast who the two opponents would be with eight weeks before Super Sunday, this is it, right? Thought you might agree. So here’s a breakdown of how the Colts and Saints stack up, assuming there are no major injuries between now and February 7. (And, yeah, I know what “assume” makes of me.)
The Headline: What’s scintillating about this matchup – beyond the talent level of both teams – is Manning’s New Orleans roots. Born there; first earned attention at Isidore Newman School, winning national high school player of the year accolades before heading to Tennessee for college; his dad, Archie, is still holding off Drew Brees when talk of the best quarterback in Saints history comes up. How will football’s best player feel when the city he grew up in roots hard against him?
Quick-strike Quarterbacks: Drew Brees leads the Saints’ NFL-leading offense while Manning’s Colts rank first in passing. Both teams will bombard the weak spots of opposing defenses. The Colts’ pass D ranks 20th and the Saints’ 23rd, so you know the quarterbacks are going to look downfield a ton. Reggie Wayne will be the best receiver on the field, but the Saints have more depth at that position and the ascent of Robert Meachem gives Brees another sharp route runner to go along with Marques Colston while Devery Henderson remains one of the game’s most dangerous deep threats. Dallas Clark easily outmatches Jeremy Shockey in the tight end battle but New Orleans head coach Sean Payton will use Reggie Bush out of the backfield to put pressure on the Colts’ linebackers.
Worrisome for the Colts is Manning’s rising interception total. He’s thrown 14, the most he’s had since tossing 19 in 2002. He’s had multiple interceptions in four of the last five games, including three during Sunday’s 28-16 win over the Broncos. That signals trouble against a Saints team that leads the league in interceptions.
Running Men: The three-headed backfield of Bush, Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas powers the Saints’ fifth-ranked rushing offense while the Colts, with Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown, rank only 30th, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Both defenses give up more than 4 yards a carry, so New Orleans figures to have an opportunity to control the clock. That doesn’t necessarily foretell victory. The Colts won in Miami on September 23 despite holding possession for just 14:53 – the least amount of time a winning team held the ball since 1977.
Rushing Men: It’s Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney vs. Will Smith and Charles Grant. The defensive ends may not have much luck getting to either quarterback, but how disruptive they are to both the passing and running games will be crucial to the outcome. Mathis is the one to watch. He’s had a monster year and can run down just about any player from behind.
Counting on Cornerbacks: Rookie cornerbacks have been spotlighted in recent Super Bowls. Last year, the Cardinals’ Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was smoked by the Steelers and Santonio Holmes. Two years ago, the Giants’ Aaron Ross was strong in the upset of the Patriots. Three years ago, Devin Hester took the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, giving the Bears an early lead before Manning took control to lead the Colts to a title.
Rookie corners will figure in a Saints-Colts duel too. Expect Payton to pick on Indianapolis’s rookie cornerbacks Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey. The Colts’ secondary has held its own so far, but it has shown weaknesses, including getting lit up by Brandon Marshall for a record-setting 21 catches on Sunday.
For the Saints, first-round pick Malcolm Jenkins has been pressed into the starting lineup because of injuries and he has struggled.
Extra Special: The biggest imbalance figures to be on special teams, where Bush could do damage on punt returns (if the Colts ever have to kick). Both kickers (the Saints’ Garrett Hartley and the Colts’ Matt Stover) were midseason additions and are dependable.
Bayou Voodoo vs. Manning Mojo: Will the feel-good Saints be able to overcome the Manning mystique? That’s an intangible at play. Manning exists for moments like this and his legacy is on the line too. Win and he can probably put to rest any notion that Tom Brady is the better quarterback. The Saints, though, have Brees, who’s tremendous. They will also have an entire city and many across the nation cheering for them to bring a title to the Big Easy, which is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina.
Both teams have had big come-from-behind victories at Land Shark Stadium this season, but New Orleans’ 46-34 win on October 25 over the Dolphins stands out as the game that propelled them to greatness. They could feed off the memory of that win when they take the field.
Super Bowl odds: If both teams head into Miami undefeated, the betting line will probably favor the Colts by a field goal against the point spread. That’s because Manning’s popularity will attract the casual bettor and the fact Indy has won a Super Bowl recently. When the Saints made a statement in their 38-17 Monday night win over the Patriots in November, the over/under total was 54; expect a similar number when they face the Colts.
Prediction: Colts 34, Saints 31. Can’t bet against Manning.
FOUR AND OUT
Proof of disorder in the universe: Cowboys kicker Nick Folk still has a job.
You know you’re an evil Republican if…: You think the skin color of Tiger Woods’s mistresses somehow has any bearing on the “black frame of mind,” as psychobabbler Rush Limbaugh said last week.
iPhone app you’ll never live without: Happy Houred (free). Thinking of going to Miami for the Super Bowl? Or just looking for cheap drinks around town? This app gives you listings of bars and taverns and tells you what discounts you can get and on what drinks. Where was that when I was in college?
Coolest song of the week: Superconnected by Broken Social Scene (last week: Stuck in the Middle by Steelers Wheels)
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